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Santa Cruz 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Facundo Mena

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $201.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $76.0KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Facundo Mena
78.5¢
Nicolas Kicker
21.5¢
Facundo Mena
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:64 trades$28.8K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nicolas Kicker · $8.9K net·6 wallets·$8.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFacundo Mena$8.5K@ 69¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Nicolas Kicker SETUP
What the tape says

Nicolas Kicker pressure: $5.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.1K
6h
−$10.9K
tracked
$28.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: Nicolas Kicker · $8.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 73

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Nicolas Kicker or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Kicker and Facundo Mena in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Kicker' if Nicolas Kicker advances against Facundo Mena. This market will resolve to 'Facundo Mena' if Facundo Mena advances against Nicolas Kicker. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Facundo Mena DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $23.2K → $4.8K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nicolas Kicker; negative values favor Facundo Mena. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNicolas Kicker · $5.1K
6hFacundo Mena · $10.9K
24hFacundo Mena · $10.9K

Nicolas Kicker price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nicolas Kicker price. Facundo Mena fills are converted to the complementary Nicolas Kicker probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current78.5¢
VWAP 24h40.8¢▲ above by 37.7pp
VWAP 7d40.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nicolas Kicker price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.5K
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$1.2K
70¢
$2.0K
65¢
$1.6K
60¢
$9
55¢
$9
50¢
$1.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$633
35¢
$9.8K
30¢
$8.5K
25¢
$3
20¢
$157
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
$1
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Facundo Mena (-1.5) vs Nicolas Kicker (+1.5)
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Nicolas Kicker vs Facundo Mena
0.0¢$3priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kicker vs. Mena: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Nicolas Kicker vs Facundo Mena
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kicker vs. Mena: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Nicolas Kicker vs. Facundo Mena: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kicker vs. Mena: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kicker vs. Mena: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.