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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur

● quote 14s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $12.1KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur
64.5¢
Alexander Zverev
35.5¢
Alex de Minaur
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$4.3K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 90 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexander Zverev$1.6K@ 65¢·0x87b9…b193

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.5K
tracked
$4.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Alex de Minaur · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 90 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Alex de Minaur in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Alexander Zverev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Zverev; negative values favor Alex de Minaur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexander Zverev · $0
6hAlex de Minaur · $1.5K
24hAlexander Zverev · $1.3K

Alexander Zverev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Zverev price. Alex de Minaur fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Zverev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h64.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d64.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Zverev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.8K
60¢
← now
$1.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alexander Zverev vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.