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Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $240.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $109.0KEvent: Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group C
39.0¢
HOTU
99.9¢
Astralis
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection73Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$39.7K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Astralis · $232 net·2 wallets·$237 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAstralis$13.8K@ 100¢·aaaa298

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

HOTU pressure: $28.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$28.9K
6h
+$25.3K
tracked
$39.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Astralis · $232 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from HOTU or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "HOTU" if HOTU win Map 2 against Astralis.

•This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 2 against HOTU.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners' match between HOTU and Astralis in the Stake Pulse Beat III Group C, initially scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "HOTU" if HOTU win Map 2 against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 2 against HOTU. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 14, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2982 linked markets · $19.3K gross
RN12 linked markets · $17.6K gross
Iostfd2 linked markets · $2.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Astralis UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $28 → $433 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor HOTU; negative values favor Astralis. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHOTU · $28.9K
6hHOTU · $25.3K
24hHOTU · $25.3K

HOTU price VWAP

Volume-weighted HOTU price. Astralis fills are converted to the complementary HOTU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.0¢
VWAP 24h7.1¢▲ above by 31.9pp
VWAP 7d7.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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HOTU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$103
50¢
$130
45¢
$2.4K
40¢
$87
35¢
← now
$1.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.5K
10¢
$152
5¢
$414
0¢
$30.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAstralis$13.8K@ 99.9¢
aaaa2980x4ebc…a33d
🐋—24 minutes ago
SELLAstralis$12.2K@ 99.9¢
iii2520xed44…4f76
🐋—24 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group C
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0.0¢$28priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.