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Spread: Hapoel Tel Aviv (-8.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $27.3KEvent: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Virtus Bologna
45.5¢
Hapoel Tel Aviv
54.5¢
Virtus Bologna
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$12.8K trackedsource coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 134 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hapoel Tel Aviv · $4.3K net·2 wallets·$12.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHapoel Tel Aviv$3.2K@ 55¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$4.3K
tracked
$12.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Hapoel Tel Aviv · $4.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 134 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hapoel Tel Aviv" if Hapoel Tel Aviv win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Virtus Bologna".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Euroleague Basketball game, scheduled for October 21 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hapoel Tel Aviv" if Hapoel Tel Aviv win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Virtus Bologna". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on euroleaguebasketball.net.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $10.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hapoel Tel Aviv; negative values favor Virtus Bologna. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHapoel Tel Aviv · $0
6hHapoel Tel Aviv · $4.3K
24hHapoel Tel Aviv · $4.3K

Hapoel Tel Aviv price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hapoel Tel Aviv price. Virtus Bologna fills are converted to the complementary Hapoel Tel Aviv probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h53.7¢▼ below by 8.2pp
VWAP 7d53.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hapoel Tel Aviv price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.2K
50¢
$9.6K
45¢
← now
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.