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Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $60.7KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A
39.5¢
Aurora Gaming
60.5¢
9z
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:41 trades$24.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY9z$15.4K@ 61¢·0xf559…f462

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

9z pressure: $4.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.4K
6h
−$20.7K
tracked
$24.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: 9z · $57 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 51

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from 9z or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than 9z in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between Aurora Gaming and 9z in the Thunderpick World Championship Group A, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than 9z in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 6m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
cs2.quant2 linked markets · $4.8K gross
nobody2somebody2 linked markets · $4.5K gross
0x8888888882 linked markets · $1.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 9z@ 62.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor 9z. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h9z · $4.4K
6h9z · $20.7K
24h9z · $20.7K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. 9z fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h39.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d39.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$7.0K
35¢
← now
$17.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY9z$15.4K@ 61.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A
67.5¢$311.5Kpriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner
0.0¢$36.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
46.5¢$14.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner
0.0¢$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)
0.0¢$1.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢$779priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)
0.0¢$24priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f4629z$15.4K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.