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Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)

Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs
0.0¢
MIBR
0.0¢
Astralis
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:5 trades$703 trackedsource coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 182 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$581
tracked
$703

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 182 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR wins 2 or more maps than Astralis in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Astralis".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 3 match between Astralis and MIBR in the Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR wins 2 or more maps than Astralis in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Astralis". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2982 linked markets · $16.2K gross
RN13 linked markets · $14.2K gross
acorp2 linked markets · $11.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor MIBR; negative values favor Astralis. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMIBR · $0
6hAstralis · $581
24hAstralis · $703

MIBR price VWAP

Volume-weighted MIBR price. Astralis fills are converted to the complementary MIBR probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h28.2¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d28.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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MIBR price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$71
25¢
$633
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-6.5) vs Astralis (+6.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.