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Jinan: Mattia Bellucci vs Shintaro Mochizuki

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $61.3KEvent: Jinan: Mattia Bellucci vs Shintaro Mochizuki
90.7¢
Mattia Bellucci
9.3¢
Shintaro Mochizuki
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$30.1K trackedsource coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mattia Bellucci · $23.8K net·8 wallets·$24.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMattia Bellucci$8.0K@ 89¢·UpTheBlues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Mattia Bellucci SETUP
What the tape says

Mattia Bellucci pressure: $8.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.8K
6h
+$24.7K
tracked
$30.1K

8 verified profitable wallets: Mattia Bellucci · $23.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: -4.2pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Mattia Bellucci or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 07:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Shintaro Mochizuki in the Jinan, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Shintaro Mochizuki. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Mochizuki' if Shintaro Mochizuki advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mattia Bellucci@ 95.0¢42m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mattia Bellucci; negative values favor Shintaro Mochizuki. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMattia Bellucci · $8.8K
6hMattia Bellucci · $24.7K
24hMattia Bellucci · $29.8K

Mattia Bellucci price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mattia Bellucci price. Shintaro Mochizuki fills are converted to the complementary Mattia Bellucci probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current90.7¢
VWAP 24h87.2¢▲ above by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d87.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mattia Bellucci price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$2.7K
90¢
← now
$309
85¢
$21.9K
80¢
$0
75¢
$5.1K
70¢
$198
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Mattia Bellucci (-1.5) vs Shintaro Mochizuki (+1.5)
0.0¢$252priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Mattia Bellucci (-3.5) vs Shintaro Mochizuki (+3.5)
0.0¢$164priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Mochizuki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Mochizuki: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mattia Bellucci vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Mattia Bellucci vs Shintaro Mochizuki
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesMattia Bellucci$21.9K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.