PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18?

● quote just now
Crypto→PricesCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $30.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $104.4KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18?
61.5¢
Up
38.5¢
Down
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$9.5K trackedsource coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown$3.6K@ 32¢·Sxc123.sxc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$259
6h
+$1.8K
tracked
$9.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Down · $0 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 18 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 18 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Down DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $3.9K → $3.5K · 29s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUp · $259
6hUp · $1.8K
24hDown · $2.8K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h74.2¢▼ below by 12.7pp
VWAP 7d74.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.7K
85¢
$8
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$2.5K
65¢
$3.6K
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$256
50¢
$14
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?
64.5¢$172.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 18?
98.5¢$85.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 12-18?
2.1¢$85.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 12-18?
0.5¢$85.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
38.5¢$81.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 18?
0.4¢$73.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?
3.3¢$62.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?
1.7¢$61.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.