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Wuhan Tennis Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $332.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.5MEvent: Wuhan Tennis Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska
0.1¢
Iga Swiatek
100.0¢
Maja Chwalinska
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 25 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:501 trades$600.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maja Chwalinska · $77.9K net·25 wallets(3🐋)·$298.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaja Chwalinska$39.6K@ 47¢·HVAB

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Maja Chwalinska pressure: $56.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$56.4K
6h
−$134.9K
tracked
$600.1K

25 verified profitable wallets: Maja Chwalinska · $77.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +14.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 14.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Maja Chwalinska or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Iga Swiatek and Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan Tennis Open, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Maja Chwalinska. This market will resolve to 'Maja Chwalinska' if Maja Chwalinska advances against Iga Swiatek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x6e8d…3a3d2 linked markets · $130 gross
0xde96…190c3 linked markets · $50 gross
0xdbdd…a5de2 linked markets · $49 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Maja Chwalinska35m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Maja Chwalinska1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Maja Chwalinska@ 86.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Maja Chwalinska@ 62.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Maja Chwalinska UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $25.8K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Iga Swiatek; negative values favor Maja Chwalinska. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMaja Chwalinska · $56.4K
6hMaja Chwalinska · $134.9K
24hMaja Chwalinska · $136.3K

Iga Swiatek price VWAP

Volume-weighted Iga Swiatek price. Maja Chwalinska fills are converted to the complementary Iga Swiatek probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.9¢▼ below by 38.8pp
VWAP 7d38.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Iga Swiatek price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.0K
85¢
$12.4K
80¢
$65.7K
75¢
$21.3K
70¢
$13.3K
65¢
$8.2K
60¢
$3.7K
55¢
$10.4K
50¢
$65.4K
45¢
$37.8K
40¢
$16.4K
35¢
$35.3K
30¢
$49.6K
25¢
$36.3K
20¢
$49.1K
15¢
$70.0K
10¢
$19.8K
5¢
$16.3K
0¢
← now
$68.2K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMaja Chwalinska$24.4K@ 99.4¢
dmoralez0x492b…45ee
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYMaja Chwalinska$10.3K@ 74.7¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMaja Chwalinska$39.6K@ 46.8¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYIga Swiatek$11.2K@ 84.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYIga Swiatek$22.4K@ 84.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska
0.0¢$3.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Iga Swiatek (-5.5) vs Maja Chwalinska (+5.5)
0.0¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiatek vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$497priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Iga Swiatek vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$270priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiatek vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiatek vs. Chwalinska: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiatek vs. Chwalinska: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiatek vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HVABMaja Chwalinska$48.7K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Maja Chwalinska$45.1K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·17 fills
ferrariChampions2026Iga Swiatek$43.4K
BUY VWAP 61.2¢·15 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseMaja Chwalinska$36.8K
BUY VWAP 55.9¢·7 fills
dmoralezMaja Chwalinska$36.1K
BUY VWAP 87.5¢·8 fills
UpTheBluesIga Swiatek$29.7K
BUY VWAP 66.8¢·14 fills
0x076d…8d4cMaja Chwalinska$26.1K
BUY VWAP 63.1¢·12 fills
0x5fd2…afceMaja Chwalinska$20.2K
BUY VWAP 78.6¢·7 fills
0x2c33…0563Maja Chwalinska$19.6K
BUY VWAP 74.5¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesMaja Chwalinska$17.4K
BUY VWAP 60.9¢·16 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.