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Mallorca: Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $267.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $112.0KEvent: Mallorca: Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi
81.5¢
Ariana Geerlings
18.5¢
Francesca Curmi
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:46 trades$38.2K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 39s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ariana Geerlings · $4.3K net·5 wallets·$4.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesca Curmi$9.5K@ 53¢·0x9e3e…f882

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Ariana Geerlings SETUP
What the tape says

Ariana Geerlings pressure: $4.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.0K
6h
−$28.7K
tracked
$38.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: Ariana Geerlings · $4.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: -35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ariana Geerlings or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ariana Geerlings and Francesca Curmi in the Mallorca, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ariana Geerlings' if Ariana Geerlings advances against Francesca Curmi. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Curmi' if Francesca Curmi advances against Ariana Geerlings. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Francesca Curmi@ 54.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Francesca Curmi DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $22.6K → $12.4K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ariana Geerlings; negative values favor Francesca Curmi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAriana Geerlings · $4.0K
6hFrancesca Curmi · $28.7K
24hFrancesca Curmi · $28.6K

Ariana Geerlings price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ariana Geerlings price. Francesca Curmi fills are converted to the complementary Ariana Geerlings probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current81.5¢
VWAP 24h50.3¢▲ above by 31.1pp
VWAP 7d50.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ariana Geerlings price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$233
85¢
$114
80¢
← now
$1.3K
75¢
$17
70¢
$2.7K
65¢
$24
60¢
$130
55¢
$478
50¢
$0
45¢
$30.3K
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Ariana Geerlings vs. Francesca Curmi: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Geerlings vs. Curmi: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Geerlings vs. Curmi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Francesca Curmi (-1.5) vs Ariana Geerlings (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Francesca Curmi (-1.5) vs Ariana Geerlings (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Geerlings vs. Curmi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x9e3e…f882Francesca Curmi$32.9K
BUY VWAP 53.1¢·17 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.