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Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?

● quote 222 min ago
Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $13.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $147.2KEvent: Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale

Indicative prices · 222 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution11Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$98.4K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 222 min agoofficial metadata 225 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$29.7K@ 100¢·bbbetk

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$42.1K
tracked
$98.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 222 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 222 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 225 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://1wtoken.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
genesisss2 linked markets · $31.9K gross
cr1mean2 linked markets · $10.8K gross
tripping2 linked markets · $7.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $42.1K
24hYES · $80.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h99.6¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d97.72¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$99.9K
90¢
$18.7K
85¢
$0
80¢
$5.4K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$14.1K@ 99.9¢
btmx60x7469…a5f0
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 99.9¢
btmx60x7469…a5f0
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYYES$29.7K@ 99.6¢
bbbetk0x7c9c…91e9
🐋—about 12 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?
98.8¢$59.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bbbetkYes$29.7K
BUY VWAP 99.6¢·1 fill
btmx6Yes$24.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills
genesisssYes$18.0K
BUY VWAP 91.38¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.