PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 17?

● quote just now
Crypto→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $20.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $67.9KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit on October 17?
0.3¢
YES
99.8¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection64Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$8.7K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$5.0K@ 100¢·upont

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $5.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.6K
6h
−$7.6K
tracked
$8.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $31 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $5.6K
6hNO · $7.6K
24hNO · $8.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.3¢
VWAP 24h2.6¢▼ below by 2.4pp
VWAP 7d2.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.7K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?
63.0¢$172.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
38.5¢$81.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 12-18?
1.4¢$81.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?
1.7¢$61.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
2.8¢$56.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
4.3¢$53.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?
1.8¢$46.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 12-18?
1.8¢$37.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.