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European Open: Toby Samuel vs Zizou Bergs

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Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $5.7KEvent: European Open: Toby Samuel vs Zizou Bergs
31.5¢
Toby Samuel
68.5¢
Zizou Bergs
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%
24h sample:3 trades$162 trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 238 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$138
tracked
$162

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 238 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Samuel and Zizou Bergs in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Zizou Bergs. This market will resolve to 'Zizou Bergs' if Zizou Bergs advances against Toby Samuel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Toby Samuel; negative values favor Zizou Bergs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hToby Samuel · $0
6hZizou Bergs · $138
24hZizou Bergs · $154

Toby Samuel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Toby Samuel price. Zizou Bergs fills are converted to the complementary Toby Samuel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h31.1¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d31.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Toby Samuel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$229
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Toby Samuel vs Zizou Bergs
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Set Handicap: Zizou Bergs (-1.5) vs Toby Samuel (+1.5)
0.0¢$890priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Samuel vs. Bergs: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$387priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Samuel vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Samuel vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Toby Samuel vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Samuel vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Samuel vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.