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Dota 2: Royal Bear vs Xipto Esports - Game 3 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $36.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $86.4KEvent: Dota 2: Royal Bear vs Xipto Esports (BO5) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
95.0¢
Royal Bear
5.0¢
Xipto Esports
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection49Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets86Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution74Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:66 trades$28.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Royal Bear · $16.3K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$19.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRoyal Bear$10.2K@ 64¢·Sunshine.Smile

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Royal Bear SETUP
What the tape says

Royal Bear pressure: $14.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.1K
6h
+$14.1K
tracked
$28.8K

10 verified profitable wallets: Royal Bear · $16.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 73% · priority 73

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Royal Bear or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Royal Bear" if Royal Bear win Game 3 against Xipto Esports.

•This market will resolve to "Xipto Esports" if Xipto Esports win Game 3 against Royal Bear.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand Final match between Royal Bear and Xipto Esports in the DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Royal Bear" if Royal Bear win Game 3 against Xipto Esports. This market will resolve to "Xipto Esports" if Xipto Esports win Game 3 against Royal Bear. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 17, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Sunshine.Smile3 linked markets · $17.3K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $13.1K gross
nomoredream3 linked markets · $9.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Royal Bear; negative values favor Xipto Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRoyal Bear · $14.1K
6hRoyal Bear · $14.1K
24hRoyal Bear · $14.1K

Royal Bear price VWAP

Volume-weighted Royal Bear price. Xipto Esports fills are converted to the complementary Royal Bear probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current95.0¢
VWAP 24h56.9¢▲ above by 38.1pp
VWAP 7d56.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Royal Bear price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$57
70¢
$85
65¢
$11.8K
60¢
$10.6K
55¢
$68
50¢
$32
45¢
$809
40¢
$17
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$4.1K
15¢
$67
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRoyal Bear$10.2K@ 63.8¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—34 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Royal Bear vs Xipto Esports (BO5) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sunshine.SmileRoyal Bear$10.2K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.