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Almaty Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Etcheverry

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $12.5KEvent: Almaty Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Etcheverry
51.5¢
Mattia Bellucci
48.5¢
Tomas Etcheverry
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$2.2K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 492 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTomas Etcheverry$2.0K@ 50¢·k56

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$2.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Tomas Etcheverry · $2.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 492 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Tomas Etcheverry in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Tomas Etcheverry. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mattia Bellucci; negative values favor Tomas Etcheverry. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMattia Bellucci · $0
6hMattia Bellucci · $0
24hTomas Etcheverry · $1.8K

Mattia Bellucci price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mattia Bellucci price. Tomas Etcheverry fills are converted to the complementary Mattia Bellucci probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h49.9¢▲ above by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d49.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mattia Bellucci price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$250
45¢
$2.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Bellucci vs. Etcheverry: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$39priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Etcheverry: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Etcheverry
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mattia Bellucci vs. Tomas Etcheverry: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Etcheverry: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Etcheverry: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Etcheverry: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Etcheverry: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.