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Ningbo Open: Elise Mertens vs Leylah Fernandez

Sports→TennisSettlement: Leylah FernandezLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $885.1KEvent: Ningbo Open: Elise Mertens vs Leylah Fernandez
0.0¢
Elise Mertens payout
100.0¢
Leylah Fernandez payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:462 trades$339.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elise Mertens · $4.6K net·18 wallets·$43.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElise Mertens$34.3K@ 61¢·robustmst

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Leylah Fernandez. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-26 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elise Mertens and Leylah Fernandez in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Leylah Fernandez. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Elise Mertens. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 6m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 6m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $5.1K gross
wtylyjwyz2 linked markets · $1.1K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $196 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Elise Mertens56m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPSELL Elise Mertens@ 68.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Leylah Fernandez UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $16.3K → $64.5K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elise Mertens; negative values favor Leylah Fernandez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLeylah Fernandez · $34.8K
6hElise Mertens · $76.4K
24hElise Mertens · $76.4K

Elise Mertens price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elise Mertens price. Leylah Fernandez fills are converted to the complementary Elise Mertens probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h55.1¢▼ below by 55.1pp
VWAP 7d55.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elise Mertens price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$9.3K
85¢
$24.0K
80¢
$16.9K
75¢
$17.0K
70¢
$25.5K
65¢
$35.4K
60¢
$37.7K
55¢
$58.4K
50¢
$26.5K
45¢
$15.3K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$11.1K
30¢
$14.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$7.0K
10¢
$4.9K
5¢
$5.3K
0¢
← now
$29.9K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYElise Mertens$34.3K@ 61.4¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLeylah Fernandez$13.9K@ 48.1¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElise Mertens$13.3K@ 87.7¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElise Mertens$10.8K@ 66.0¢
onon1210xda2c…df58
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYElise Mertens$10.0K@ 55.7¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstElise Mertens$54.3K
BUY VWAP 51.1¢·4 fills
hurricanLeylah Fernandez$16.1K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesLeylah Fernandez$14.1K
BUY VWAP 38.6¢·14 fills
hurricanElise Mertens$13.3K
BUY VWAP 87.7¢·1 fill
KkunnLeylah Fernandez$10.9K
BUY VWAP 29.1¢·3 fills
onon121Elise Mertens$10.8K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
tiger105Elise Mertens$10.0K
BUY VWAP 55.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.