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Lyon Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Moise Kouame

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $19.1KEvent: Lyon Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Moise Kouame
61.5¢
Lorenzo Sonego
38.5¢
Moise Kouame
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$5.6K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Sonego · $5.5K net·2 wallets·$5.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLorenzo Sonego$3.4K@ 61¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$3.5K
tracked
$5.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Sonego · $5.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 64 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Moise Kouame in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Moise Kouame. This market will resolve to 'Moise Kouame' if Moise Kouame advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Sonego; negative values favor Moise Kouame. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Sonego · $0
6hLorenzo Sonego · $3.5K
24hLorenzo Sonego · $5.6K

Lorenzo Sonego price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Sonego price. Moise Kouame fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Sonego probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h60.6¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d60.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Sonego price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$5.6K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Lorenzo Sonego (-2.5) vs Moise Kouame (+2.5)
48.0¢$547priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Sonego (-1.5) vs Moise Kouame (+1.5)
0.0¢$513priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Kouame: Match O/U 22.5
52.5¢$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Kouame: Match O/U 21.5
60.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Kouame: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
80.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Kouame: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego vs Moise Kouame
58.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Kouame: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
57.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.