PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Lyon Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote 26 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $633.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $456.9KEvent: Lyon Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti
1.0¢
Matteo Arnaldi
99.9¢
Lorenzo Musetti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:82 trades$142.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Musetti · $53.3K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$81.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLorenzo Musetti$21.9K@ 81¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Matteo Arnaldi pressure: $10.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.0K
6h
−$48.2K
tracked
$142.0K

12 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Musetti · $53.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 49 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Matteo Arnaldi or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $6.2K gross
iWasEnough2 linked markets · $62 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Lorenzo Musetti UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.2K → $88.6K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Arnaldi; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatteo Arnaldi · $10.0K
6hLorenzo Musetti · $48.2K
24hLorenzo Musetti · $48.2K

Matteo Arnaldi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Arnaldi price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Arnaldi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h22.5¢▼ below by 21.5pp
VWAP 7d22.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Matteo Arnaldi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$56.1K
30¢
$192
25¢
$2.0K
20¢
$1.9K
15¢
$28.4K
10¢
$38.4K
5¢
$4.8K
0¢
← now
$10.2K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLorenzo Musetti$21.9K@ 81.1¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$10.5K@ 63.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Arnaldi vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$2.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti
0.0¢$565priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arnaldi vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$560priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Musetti (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)
0.0¢$280priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$204priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Lorenzo Musetti (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)
0.0¢$37priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arnaldi vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arnaldi vs. Musetti: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Lorenzo Musetti$29.9K
BUY VWAP 75.3¢·2 fills
KkunnMatteo Arnaldi$16.0K
BUY VWAP 18.2¢·5 fills
FlaznorpLorenzo Musetti$12.5K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.