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Lisbon: Marco Cecchinato vs Vilius Gaubas

● quote 28 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $115.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $116.9KEvent: Lisbon: Marco Cecchinato vs Vilius Gaubas
99.9¢
Marco Cecchinato
0.5¢
Vilius Gaubas
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets80Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:62 trades$24.7K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 33 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marco Cecchinato · $7.0K net·7 wallets·$8.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarco Cecchinato$2.1K@ 77¢·UpTheBlues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Vilius Gaubas pressure: $1.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.0K
6h
+$10.4K
tracked
$24.7K

7 verified profitable wallets: Marco Cecchinato · $7.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 28 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 33 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vilius Gaubas or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Cecchinato and Vilius Gaubas in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Cecchinato' if Marco Cecchinato advances against Vilius Gaubas. This market will resolve to 'Vilius Gaubas' if Vilius Gaubas advances against Marco Cecchinato. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Marco Cecchinato UP 3.8pp · near-book depth $12.7K → $791 · 40s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marco Cecchinato; negative values favor Vilius Gaubas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVilius Gaubas · $1.0K
6hMarco Cecchinato · $10.4K
24hMarco Cecchinato · $10.4K

Marco Cecchinato price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marco Cecchinato price. Vilius Gaubas fills are converted to the complementary Marco Cecchinato probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h77.0¢▲ above by 22.9pp
VWAP 7d77.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marco Cecchinato price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$8.8K
90¢
$4.8K
85¢
$0
80¢
$371
75¢
$2.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.2K
60¢
$205
55¢
$147
50¢
$3.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$4.0K
35¢
$43
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Cecchinato vs. Gaubas: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$41priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Marco Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Vilius Gaubas (+1.5)
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cecchinato vs. Gaubas: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Vilius Gaubas (-1.5) vs Marco Cecchinato (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Marco Cecchinato vs. Vilius Gaubas: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Marco Cecchinato vs Vilius Gaubas
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cecchinato vs. Gaubas: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cecchinato vs. Gaubas: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.