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Lisbon: Francesco Passaro vs Gastao Elias

● quote 535 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $5.4KEvent: Lisbon: Francesco Passaro vs Gastao Elias
89.0¢
Francesco Passaro
11.0¢
Gastao Elias
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$216 trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 277 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$8
tracked
$216

1 verified profitable wallet: Francesco Passaro · $28 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 535 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 277 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Passaro and Gastao Elias in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Gastao Elias. This market will resolve to 'Gastao Elias' if Gastao Elias advances against Francesco Passaro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Passaro; negative values favor Gastao Elias. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesco Passaro · $0
6hFrancesco Passaro · $8
24hFrancesco Passaro · $163

Francesco Passaro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Passaro price. Gastao Elias fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Passaro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.0¢
VWAP 24h85.5¢▲ above by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d83.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Passaro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$8
85¢
← now
$170
80¢
$546
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Passaro vs. Elias: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢$56priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Francesco Passaro (-6.5) vs Gastao Elias (+6.5)
44.0¢$23priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Francesco Passaro vs Gastao Elias
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Passaro vs. Elias: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Passaro vs. Elias: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Passaro vs. Elias: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Passaro vs. Elias: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Francesco Passaro vs Gastao Elias
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.