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Lisbon: Tristan Boyer vs Elmer Moeller

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $137.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $357.4KEvent: Lisbon: Tristan Boyer vs Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Tristan Boyer
99.9¢
Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection38Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:57 trades$225.2K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elmer Moeller · $11.0K net·8 wallets·$11.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLElmer Moeller$71.0K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Tristan Boyer pressure: $86.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$86.2K
6h
+$11.7K
tracked
$225.2K

8 verified profitable wallets: Elmer Moeller · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 81% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +84.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 84.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tristan Boyer or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tristan Boyer and Elmer Moeller in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tristan Boyer' if Tristan Boyer advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Tristan Boyer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Elmer Moeller@ 84.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Elmer Moeller1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Elmer Moeller@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Elmer Moeller UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $45.4K → $10.8K · 75s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tristan Boyer; negative values favor Elmer Moeller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTristan Boyer · $86.2K
6hTristan Boyer · $11.7K
24hTristan Boyer · $11.7K

Tristan Boyer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tristan Boyer price. Elmer Moeller fills are converted to the complementary Tristan Boyer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h21.5¢▼ below by 21.4pp
VWAP 7d21.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tristan Boyer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.6K
45¢
$35.9K
40¢
$30.1K
35¢
$30.4K
30¢
$5
25¢
$182
20¢
$12.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$30.4K
5¢
$20
0¢
← now
$84.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElmer Moeller$11.5K@ 99.9¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—29 minutes ago
SELLElmer Moeller$71.0K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 86.8¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLElmer Moeller$11.6K@ 77.6¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 52.4¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 60.5¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 58.7¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 62.3¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 61.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 59.2¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Boyer vs. Moeller: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$105priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tristan Boyer vs. Elmer Moeller: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Tristan Boyer vs Elmer Moeller
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstElmer Moeller$65.0K
BUY VWAP 59.3¢·8 fills
hurricanElmer Moeller$10.0K
BUY VWAP 86.8¢·1 fill
tiger105Elmer Moeller$10.0K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.