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Lisbon: Thiago Monteiro vs Alejandro Moro Canas

● quote 50 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $954.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.8KEvent: Lisbon: Thiago Monteiro vs Alejandro Moro Canas
99.9¢
Thiago Monteiro
5.0¢
Alejandro Moro Canas
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$140.2K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 50 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Thiago Monteiro · $1.2K net·4 wallets·$2.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLThiago Monteiro$31.8K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$51
6h
−$37.5K
tracked
$140.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: Thiago Monteiro · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +70.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 50 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 50 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Monteiro and Alejandro Moro Canas in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Alejandro Moro Canas. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Moro Canas' if Alejandro Moro Canas advances against Thiago Monteiro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Thiago Monteiro@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPSELL Thiago Monteiro@ 69.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Thiago Monteiro3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Thiago Monteiro@ 51.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +22.0pp1h CONFIRMED +19.0pp
Latest book event: Alejandro Moro Canas DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $398 · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thiago Monteiro; negative values favor Alejandro Moro Canas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlejandro Moro Canas · $51
6hAlejandro Moro Canas · $37.5K
24hAlejandro Moro Canas · $37.5K

Thiago Monteiro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thiago Monteiro price. Alejandro Moro Canas fills are converted to the complementary Thiago Monteiro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h73.0¢▲ above by 26.9pp
VWAP 7d73.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thiago Monteiro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$34.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$6.6K
80¢
$14.4K
75¢
$121
70¢
$22.1K
65¢
$10.5K
60¢
$917
55¢
$5.4K
50¢
$36.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$10.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLThiago Monteiro$31.8K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$15.0K@ 53.5¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$20.0K@ 52.8¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$10.0K@ 44.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Monteiro vs. Canas: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thiago Monteiro vs. Alejandro Moro Canas: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Monteiro vs. Canas: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Monteiro vs. Canas: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Monteiro vs. Canas: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Alejandro Moro Canas (-1.5) vs Thiago Monteiro (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Thiago Monteiro vs Alejandro Moro Canas
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Monteiro vs. Canas: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstThiago Monteiro$45.0K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.