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Cali: Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $53.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $238.3KEvent: Cali: Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia
56.5¢
Matias Soto
43.5¢
Samuel Heredia
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:163 trades$38.4K trackedsource coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Samuel Heredia · $12.2K net·13 wallets·$20.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSamuel Heredia$2.1K@ 55¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$127
6h
−$14.3K
tracked
$38.4K

13 verified profitable wallets: Samuel Heredia · $12.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matias Soto and Samuel Heredia in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Samuel Heredia. This market will resolve to 'Samuel Heredia' if Samuel Heredia advances against Matias Soto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Samuel Heredia UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $5.1K → $870 · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matias Soto; negative values favor Samuel Heredia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatias Soto · $127
6hSamuel Heredia · $14.3K
24hSamuel Heredia · $14.3K

Matias Soto price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matias Soto price. Samuel Heredia fills are converted to the complementary Matias Soto probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h47.9¢▲ above by 8.6pp
VWAP 7d47.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matias Soto price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1
75¢
$1
70¢
$197
65¢
$5.8K
60¢
$2.7K
55¢
← now
$8.7K
50¢
$3.3K
45¢
$1.9K
40¢
$4.3K
35¢
$24
30¢
$4.9K
25¢
$4.5K
20¢
$2.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.