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European Open: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Raphael Collignon

● quote 73 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $601.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.3KEvent: European Open: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Raphael Collignon
1.0¢
Nishesh Basavareddy
99.9¢
Raphael Collignon
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets59Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$81.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 102 min agoofficial metadata 78 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nishesh Basavareddy · $9.6K net·13 wallets·$16.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNishesh Basavareddy$12.4K@ 55¢·bbbetk

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$36.9K
tracked
$81.5K

13 verified profitable wallets: Nishesh Basavareddy · $9.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 73 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 102 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 78 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nishesh Basavareddy and Raphael Collignon in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nishesh Basavareddy' if Nishesh Basavareddy advances against Raphael Collignon. This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Nishesh Basavareddy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Raphael Collignon UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $29.3K → $1.2K · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nishesh Basavareddy; negative values favor Raphael Collignon. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNishesh Basavareddy · $0
6hNishesh Basavareddy · $36.9K
24hNishesh Basavareddy · $36.5K

Nishesh Basavareddy price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nishesh Basavareddy price. Raphael Collignon fills are converted to the complementary Nishesh Basavareddy probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h50.5¢▼ below by 49.5pp
VWAP 7d50.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nishesh Basavareddy price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$6.6K
85¢
$3.6K
80¢
$1.9K
75¢
$9.5K
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$2
55¢
$26.3K
50¢
$10.0K
45¢
$26
40¢
$0
35¢
$3
30¢
$108
25¢
$4.0K
20¢
$465
15¢
$2.4K
10¢
$4.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$11.1K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNishesh Basavareddy$12.4K@ 55.0¢
bbbetk0x7c9c…91e9
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bbbetkNishesh Basavareddy$12.4K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.