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Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $69.6KEvent: Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF - More Markets

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

40.5¢
Real Madrid CF
59.5¢
Real Racing Club
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$30.9K trackedsource coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Real Racing Club · $18.5K net·2 wallets·$18.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYReal Racing Club$8.2K@ 61¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$15
6h
+$8.0K
tracked
$30.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: Real Racing Club · $18.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 15:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 3 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Racing Club".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for November 1 at 10:15 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Racing Club". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0F622 linked markets · $145.1K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $4.9K gross
mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $3.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Real Madrid CF; negative values favor Real Racing Club. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hReal Madrid CF · $15
6hReal Madrid CF · $8.0K
24hReal Racing Club · $6.1K

Real Madrid CF price VWAP

Volume-weighted Real Madrid CF price. Real Racing Club fills are converted to the complementary Real Madrid CF probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h40.02¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d40.02¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Real Madrid CF price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$19.3K
35¢
$11.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5)
0.4¢$113.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)
1.8¢$79.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
62.5¢$38.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
39.5¢$20.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5
79.5¢$10.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
59.5¢$8.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5
—$8.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-4.5)
—$7priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Real Racing Club$18.4K
BUY VWAP 60.17¢·4 fills
bubananaReal Madrid CF$10.2K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.