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Set Handicap: Leylah Fernandez (-1.5) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $515Event: Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
0.0¢
Leylah Fernandez
0.0¢
Aliaksandra Sasnovich.
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%
24h sample:1 trades$75 trackedsource coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 101 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$75
tracked
$75

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 101 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Leylah Fernandez" if Leylah Fernandez wins by 2 or more sets than Aliaksandra Sasnovich, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Aliaksandra Sasnovich."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Leylah Fernandez can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Aliaksandra Sasnovich."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Leylah Fernandez and Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Leylah Fernandez" if Leylah Fernandez wins by 2 or more sets than Aliaksandra Sasnovich, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Aliaksandra Sasnovich." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Leylah Fernandez can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Aliaksandra Sasnovich." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $646 gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $16 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Leylah Fernandez; negative values favor Aliaksandra Sasnovich.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLeylah Fernandez · $0
6hLeylah Fernandez · $75
24hLeylah Fernandez · $75

Leylah Fernandez price VWAP

Volume-weighted Leylah Fernandez price. Aliaksandra Sasnovich. fills are converted to the complementary Leylah Fernandez probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h47.0¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d47.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Leylah Fernandez price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$75
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
67.5¢$211.9Kpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Leylah Fernandez vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
0.0¢$4.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Leylah Fernandez (-3.5) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+3.5)
0.0¢$1.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fernandez vs. Sasnovich: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$65priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fernandez vs. Sasnovich: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fernandez vs. Sasnovich: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fernandez vs. Sasnovich: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Leylah Fernandez vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.