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Almaty Open: Facundo Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $18.0KEvent: Almaty Open: Facundo Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
33.5¢
Facundo Acosta
66.5¢
Nikoloz Basilashvili
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$5.9K trackedsource coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nikoloz Basilashvili · $5.9K net·2 wallets·$5.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNikoloz Basilashvili$5.9K@ 65¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$13
6h
−$5.9K
tracked
$5.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: Nikoloz Basilashvili · $5.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Facundo Acosta' if Facundo Acosta advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Facundo Acosta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
VeryLucky8882 linked markets · $23 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Facundo Acosta; negative values favor Nikoloz Basilashvili. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNikoloz Basilashvili · $13
6hNikoloz Basilashvili · $5.9K
24hNikoloz Basilashvili · $5.9K

Facundo Acosta price VWAP

Volume-weighted Facundo Acosta price. Nikoloz Basilashvili fills are converted to the complementary Facundo Acosta probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h35.1¢▼ below by 1.6pp
VWAP 7d35.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Facundo Acosta price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$5.9K
30¢
← now
$13
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Facundo Acosta vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$11priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Facundo Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Acosta vs. Basilashvili: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Acosta vs. Basilashvili: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Nikoloz Basilashvili (-1.5) vs Facundo Acosta (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Acosta vs. Basilashvili: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Acosta vs. Basilashvili: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Acosta vs. Basilashvili: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.