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Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $215.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $184.3KEvent: Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

45.5¢
Jacksonville State
54.5¢
New Mexico State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets79Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:39 trades$72.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 33 min agoofficial metadata 12s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:New Mexico State · $36.3K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$45.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew Mexico State$40.7K@ 54¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
+$5.9K
tracked
$72.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: New Mexico State · $36.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 33 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Jacksonville State" if Jacksonville State win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "New Mexico State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 28 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Jacksonville State" if Jacksonville State win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "New Mexico State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY New Mexico State@ 55.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jacksonville State; negative values favor New Mexico State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNew Mexico State · $3
6hJacksonville State · $5.9K
24hNew Mexico State · $18.1K

Jacksonville State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jacksonville State price. New Mexico State fills are converted to the complementary Jacksonville State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h45.96¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d45.96¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jacksonville State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$72.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNew Mexico State$40.7K@ 54.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State
—$351priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: New Mexico State (-1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State: O/U 51.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Jacksonville State (-4.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State: O/U 41.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State: O/U 75.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Jacksonville State (-5.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: New Mexico State (-0.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempNew Mexico State$40.7K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
quavooJacksonville State$11.4K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·6 fills
mooseborzoiiJacksonville State$10.6K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.