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Lisbon: Patrick Schoen vs Svyatoslav Gulin

● quote 106 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $124.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $298.7KEvent: Lisbon: Patrick Schoen vs Svyatoslav Gulin
0.1¢
Patrick Schoen
99.9¢
Svyatoslav Gulin
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets86Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$92.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 142 min agoofficial metadata 107 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Svyatoslav Gulin · $21.4K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$24.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPatrick Schoen$22.3K@ 42¢·lsiflsliggjriek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$2.1K
tracked
$92.3K

5 verified profitable wallets: Svyatoslav Gulin · $21.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 106 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 142 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 107 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Patrick Schoen and Svyatoslav Gulin in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Patrick Schoen' if Patrick Schoen advances against Svyatoslav Gulin. This market will resolve to 'Svyatoslav Gulin' if Svyatoslav Gulin advances against Patrick Schoen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Svyatoslav Gulin UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $28.1K → $2.5K · 64s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Patrick Schoen; negative values favor Svyatoslav Gulin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPatrick Schoen · $0
6hSvyatoslav Gulin · $2.1K
24hSvyatoslav Gulin · $2.1K

Patrick Schoen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Patrick Schoen price. Svyatoslav Gulin fills are converted to the complementary Patrick Schoen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h27.1¢▼ below by 27.0pp
VWAP 7d27.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Patrick Schoen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$205
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$41.4K
35¢
$49
30¢
$0
25¢
$30
20¢
$1.7K
15¢
$23.1K
10¢
$25.7K
5¢
$65
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSvyatoslav Gulin$13.8K@ 81.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPatrick Schoen$22.3K@ 41.6¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Patrick Schoen (-1.5) vs Svyatoslav Gulin (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Schoen vs. Gulin: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Schoen vs. Gulin: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Schoen vs. Gulin: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Patrick Schoen vs Svyatoslav Gulin
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patrick Schoen vs. Svyatoslav Gulin: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Schoen vs. Gulin: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Schoen vs. Gulin: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lsiflsliggjriekPatrick Schoen$41.0K
BUY VWAP 28.8¢·5 fills
0x2c33…0563Svyatoslav Gulin$13.8K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill
dips.Svyatoslav Gulin$12.5K
BUY VWAP 87.7¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesSvyatoslav Gulin$11.1K
BUY VWAP 85.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.