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Lisbon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moeller

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.3KEvent: Lisbon: Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moeller
0.0¢
Max Alcala Gurri
0.0¢
Elmer Moeller
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%
24h sample:2 trades$2.4K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 175 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMax Alcala Gurri$2.4K@ 51¢·traderwins180

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$2.4K
tracked
$2.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 175 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Max Alcala Gurri and Elmer Moeller in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Max Alcala Gurri' if Max Alcala Gurri advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Max Alcala Gurri. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Max Alcala Gurri; negative values favor Elmer Moeller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMax Alcala Gurri · $0
6hMax Alcala Gurri · $2.4K
24hMax Alcala Gurri · $2.4K

Max Alcala Gurri price VWAP

Volume-weighted Max Alcala Gurri price. Elmer Moeller fills are converted to the complementary Max Alcala Gurri probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d50.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Max Alcala Gurri price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.4K
45¢
$18
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Max Alcala Gurri vs. Elmer Moeller: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gurri vs. Moeller: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moeller
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moeller
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gurri vs. Moeller: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gurri vs. Moeller: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Max Alcala Gurri (-1.5) vs Elmer Moeller (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gurri vs. Moeller: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.