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Spread: 49ers (-9.5)

● quote 506 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $32.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.4KEvent: Raiders vs. 49ers

Indicative prices · 506 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

51.5¢
49ers
48.5¢
Raiders
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%
24h sample:3 trades$958 trackedsource coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1137 min agoofficial metadata 516 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY49ers$27.3K@ 52¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$958

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 506 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1137 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 516 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 21:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 10 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Raiders and 49ers, scheduled for November 8 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 49ers@ 52.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 49ers; negative values favor Raiders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h49ers · $0
6h49ers · $0
24hRaiders · $958

49ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 49ers price. Raiders fills are converted to the complementary 49ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d51.97¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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49ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$39.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY49ers$27.3K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—2 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Raiders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5
46.5¢$14.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Raiders vs. 49ers
20.5¢$10.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
—$422priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raiders (-3.5)
—$208priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-20.5)
—$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-8.5)
—$18priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Raiders vs. 49ers: O/U 44.5
—$3priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Raiders (-2.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTrading49ers$29.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.