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Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs

● quote 18s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $847.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $390.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs
0.1¢
magic
100.0¢
TheMongolz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:191 trades$145.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:magic · $31.4K net·7 wallets·$32.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYmagic$10.5K@ 45¢·lllllllIlll

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

magic pressure: $13.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.9K
6h
+$15.4K
tracked
$145.4K

7 verified profitable wallets: magic · $31.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from magic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 15:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against TheMongolz.

•This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against magic.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between magic and TheMongolz in the 1win Private Club Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against magic. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $34.2K gross
Iostfd2 linked markets · $17.1K gross
Kangtamqf3 linked markets · $13.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY magic@ 48.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: TheMongolz UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $7.1K → $5.1K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor magic; negative values favor TheMongolz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hmagic · $13.9K
6hmagic · $15.4K
24hmagic · $45.6K

magic price VWAP

Volume-weighted magic price. TheMongolz fills are converted to the complementary magic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.2¢▼ below by 40.2pp
VWAP 7d40.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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magic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$638
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.1K
45¢
$89.2K
40¢
$13.4K
35¢
$115
30¢
$5.9K
25¢
$8.2K
20¢
$375
15¢
$0
10¢
$505
5¢
$91
0¢
← now
$21.6K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYmagic$10.5K@ 45.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$208.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5)
100.0¢$10.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.0¢$2.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢$45priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-9.5) vs magic (+9.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs magic (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs magic (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cmagic$31.1K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·16 fills
lllllllIlllmagic$15.4K
BUY VWAP 44.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.