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Lyon Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Taylor Fritz

● quote 19 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $247.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $832.4KEvent: Lyon Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Taylor Fritz
6.1¢
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
99.9¢
Taylor Fritz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 21 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:247 trades$264.3K trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 37 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Taylor Fritz · $88.2K net·21 wallets(1🐋)·$119.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTaylor Fritz$24.5K@ 71¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Pierre-Hugues Herbert pressure: $25.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$25.0K
6h
−$104.2K
tracked
$264.3K

21 verified profitable wallets: Taylor Fritz · $88.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +36.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 19 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 37 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 36.4pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pierre-Hugues Herbert or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Taylor Fritz in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pierre-Hugues Herbert' if Pierre-Hugues Herbert advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Pierre-Hugues Herbert. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5d63…90752 linked markets · $9 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Taylor Fritz1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Taylor Fritz1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Taylor Fritz1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Taylor Fritz@ 63.6¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +21.4pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Taylor Fritz DOWN 3.2pp · near-book depth $22.3K → $4.5K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pierre-Hugues Herbert; negative values favor Taylor Fritz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPierre-Hugues Herbert · $25.0K
6hTaylor Fritz · $104.2K
24hTaylor Fritz · $106.8K

Pierre-Hugues Herbert price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pierre-Hugues Herbert price. Taylor Fritz fills are converted to the complementary Pierre-Hugues Herbert probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.1¢
VWAP 24h26.3¢▼ below by 20.2pp
VWAP 7d26.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pierre-Hugues Herbert price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$8.1K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$5.4K
45¢
$15.8K
40¢
$27.9K
35¢
$2.9K
30¢
$35.7K
25¢
$59.7K
20¢
$25.3K
15¢
$35.4K
10¢
$3.5K
5¢
← now
$10.7K
0¢
$33.8K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTaylor Fritz$24.5K@ 71.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Taylor Fritz (-4.5) vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (+4.5)
0.0¢$3.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (+1.5)
0.0¢$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Herbert vs. Fritz: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$323priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$180priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Herbert vs. Fritz: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$85priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Herbert vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Herbert vs. Fritz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Herbert vs. Fritz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Taylor Fritz$33.3K
BUY VWAP 71.8¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Taylor Fritz$30.3K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·17 fills
UpTheBluesTaylor Fritz$18.8K
BUY VWAP 72.5¢·14 fills
HVABPierre-Hugues Herbert$15.3K
BUY VWAP 56.2¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cTaylor Fritz$15.0K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·3 fills
HVABTaylor Fritz$12.3K
BUY VWAP 72.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.