1win FDV above $70M one day after launch?

● quote 664 min ago

Crypto→Token LaunchCloses: about 1 yearLiquidity: $27.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $131.1KEvent: 1win FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Indicative prices · 664 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢

YES

99.9¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution16Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:17 trades$55.1K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 780 min agoofficial metadata 668 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $23.1K net·2 wallets·$23.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$8.9K@ 99¢·scout

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

tracked

$55.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $23.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 664 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 780 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 668 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2028-01-01 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of 1win's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

•"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If 1win (https://x.com/1winToken) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of 1win's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by 1win after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If 1win (https://x.com/1winToken) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $0

24hNO · $43.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.1¢

VWAP 24h5.74¢▼ below by 5.6pp

VWAP 7d7.1¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

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