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Counter-Strike: eSuba vs KAMUI (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group C

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $17.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: eSuba vs KAMUI (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group C
89.5¢
eSuba
10.5¢
KAMUI
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution35Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%
24h sample:39 trades$617 trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$226
6h
+$11
tracked
$617

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 14:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "eSuba" if eSuba win the match against KAMUI.

•This market will resolve to "KAMUI" if KAMUI win the match against eSuba.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between eSuba and KAMUI in the Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group C, initially scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "eSuba" if eSuba win the match against KAMUI. This market will resolve to "KAMUI" if KAMUI win the match against eSuba. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 21, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: KAMUI DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $23 → $8 · 105s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor eSuba; negative values favor KAMUI. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1heSuba · $226
6heSuba · $11
24heSuba · $11

eSuba price VWAP

Volume-weighted eSuba price. KAMUI fills are converted to the complementary eSuba probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h52.8¢▲ above by 36.8pp
VWAP 7d52.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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eSuba price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$40
80¢
$35
75¢
$21
70¢
$14
65¢
$3
60¢
$153
55¢
$0
50¢
$98
45¢
$0
40¢
$58
35¢
$119
30¢
$11
25¢
$4
20¢
$60
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: eSuba vs KAMUI - Map 1 Winner
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Counter-Strike: eSuba vs KAMUI - Map 2 Winner
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Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
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Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
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Map Handicap: KAMUI (-1.5) vs eSuba (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KAMUI (-3.5) vs eSuba (+3.5)
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.