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Spread: Nets (-1.5)

● quote 22s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $62.6KEvent: Hornets vs. Nets
45.5¢
Nets
54.5¢
Hornets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$27.1K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hornets · $13.8K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$13.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHornets$11.6K@ 52¢·mooseborzoii

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Nets pressure: $5.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.4K
6h
−$10.9K
tracked
$27.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: Hornets · $13.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Nets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Nets" if the Nets win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Hornets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Nets" if the Nets win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SunlineTicker6 linked markets · $79.5K gross
tin543212 linked markets · $33.9K gross
mooseborzoii3 linked markets · $22.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nets; negative values favor Hornets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNets · $5.4K
6hHornets · $10.9K
24hHornets · $16.2K

Nets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nets price. Hornets fills are converted to the complementary Nets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h47.9¢▼ below by 2.3pp
VWAP 7d47.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$890
45¢
← now
$26.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHornets$11.6K@ 52.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Hornets vs. Nets
51.5¢$490.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hornets (-1.5)
48.5¢$151.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 220.5
48.5¢$89.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5
58.5¢$59.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Nets (-3.5)
38.5¢$51.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 219.5
50.5¢$41.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 235.5
22.5¢$38.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 218.5
53.5¢$37.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiiHornets$11.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.