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Cali: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Nicolas Jarry

● quote 761 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $151.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $216.8KEvent: Cali: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Nicolas Jarry
99.9¢
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
3.1¢
Nicolas Jarry
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:94 trades$42.1K trackedsource coverage 19%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 776 min agoofficial metadata 764 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida · $7.3K net·9 wallets·$7.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida$18.5K@ 54¢·crazyoddslover

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$42.1K

9 verified profitable wallets: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida · $7.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 761 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 776 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 764 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida and Nicolas Jarry in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida' if Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida advances against Nicolas Jarry. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Jarry' if Nicolas Jarry advances against Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida@ 54.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida UP 8.0pp · near-book depth $874 → $7.2K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida; negative values favor Nicolas Jarry. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida · $0
6hMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida · $0
24hMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida · $11.2K

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida price. Nicolas Jarry fills are converted to the complementary Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h65.5¢▲ above by 34.4pp
VWAP 7d60.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.9K
75¢
$12.0K
70¢
$6.2K
65¢
$970
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$6.5K
50¢
$32.7K
45¢
$3.6K
40¢
$2.2K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$7
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida$18.5K@ 54.0¢
crazyoddslover0x49f2…506a
🐋—1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs. Nicolas Jarry: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$18priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Almeida vs. Jarry: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida (-0.5) vs Nicolas Jarry (+0.5)
52.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Nicolas Jarry
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Almeida vs. Jarry: Match O/U 23.5
44.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Almeida vs. Jarry: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Almeida vs. Jarry: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger
0.0¢$660.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

crazyoddsloverMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida$18.5K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
alaskabakedNicolas Jarry$11.0K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.