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Lyon Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tommy Paul

● quote 27 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $776.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $682.5KEvent: Lyon Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Benjamin Bonzi
99.9¢
Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:164 trades$379.7K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tommy Paul · $42.0K net·18 wallets(2🐋)·$107.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTommy Paul$46.9K@ 94¢·778908

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Benjamin Bonzi pressure: $14.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.3K
6h
−$227.3K
tracked
$379.7K

18 verified profitable wallets: Tommy Paul · $42.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 27 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 31 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Benjamin Bonzi or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Benjamin Bonzi and Tommy Paul in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Bonzi' if Benjamin Bonzi advances against Tommy Paul. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Benjamin Bonzi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5245…313f2 linked markets · $2.6K gross
0x0115…ac792 linked markets · $70 gross
Absing2 linked markets · $38 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Tommy Paul@ 87.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Tommy Paul1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Tommy Paul@ 67.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Tommy Paul1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Benjamin Bonzi DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $8.9K → $33 · 15s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Benjamin Bonzi; negative values favor Tommy Paul. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBenjamin Bonzi · $14.3K
6hTommy Paul · $227.3K
24hTommy Paul · $230.0K

Benjamin Bonzi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Benjamin Bonzi price. Tommy Paul fills are converted to the complementary Benjamin Bonzi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h16.6¢▼ below by 16.5pp
VWAP 7d16.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Benjamin Bonzi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$12.2K
30¢
$113.1K
25¢
$6.5K
20¢
$4.1K
15¢
$18.1K
10¢
$76.2K
5¢
$89.2K
0¢
← now
$60.4K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTommy Paul$27.7K@ 99.9¢0x246b…fb5b🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTommy Paul$12.8K@ 99.9¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTommy Paul$11.7K@ 94.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTommy Paul$46.9K@ 93.8¢
7789080x3c3a…8b5f
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTommy Paul$21.7K@ 68.0¢
bluemario0x34a1…7622
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTommy Paul$14.5K@ 67.3¢
bluemario0x34a1…7622
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTommy Paul$34.4K@ 66.9¢
bluemario0x34a1…7622
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTommy Paul$13.3K@ 89.0¢
7789080x3c3a…8b5f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$13.9K@ 87.0¢0x246b…fb5b🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$10.1K@ 86.1¢0x246b…fb5b🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$10.0K@ 86.0¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bluemarioTommy Paul$88.7K
BUY VWAP 67.2¢·7 fills
778908Tommy Paul$60.2K
BUY VWAP 92.7¢·2 fills
0x246b…fb5bTommy Paul$24.0K
BUY VWAP 86.6¢·2 fills
FlaznorpTommy Paul$11.8K
BUY VWAP 93.9¢·2 fills
austrTommy Paul$11.0K
BUY VWAP 85.9¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesTommy Paul$11.0K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·5 fills
flatbarrelTommy Paul$10.8K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·2 fills
tradecraftTommy Paul$10.8K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·2 fills
TRCMTommy Paul$10.8K
BUY VWAP 89.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.