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Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Matias Soto

● quote 113 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $35.1KEvent: Cali: Valerio Aboian vs Matias Soto
99.9¢
Valerio Aboian
1.4¢
Matias Soto
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$4.4K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 149 min agoofficial metadata 114 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Valerio Aboian · $36 net·3 wallets·$462 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatias Soto$1.3K@ 50¢·Bagwell306

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$2.2K
tracked
$4.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: Valerio Aboian · $36 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 113 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 149 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 114 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Matias Soto in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Matias Soto. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Valerio Aboian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valerio Aboian; negative values favor Matias Soto. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValerio Aboian · $0
6hMatias Soto · $2.2K
24hMatias Soto · $3.0K

Valerio Aboian price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valerio Aboian price. Matias Soto fills are converted to the complementary Valerio Aboian probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h61.9¢▲ above by 38.0pp
VWAP 7d61.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valerio Aboian price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$439
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$486
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Matias Soto (-1.5) vs Valerio Aboian (+1.5)
0.0¢$4.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valerio Aboian vs. Matias Soto: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$52priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Soto: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Soto: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Soto: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Soto: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Soto: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Valerio Aboian vs Matias Soto
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.