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Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $1.2MOfficial 24h Vol: $303.5KEvent: Hawks vs. Hornets

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.5¢
Hawks
49.5¢
Hornets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets71Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:56 trades$121.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 34 min agoofficial metadata 26s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hawks · $37.2K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$52.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHawks$22.0K@ 51¢·Elaran1993

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Hornets pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
+$4.4K
tracked
$121.5K

6 verified profitable wallets: Hawks · $37.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 34 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hornets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Hornets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Elaran19932 linked markets · $74.8K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $16.2K gross
HomeRunHazard9 linked markets · $14.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hawks@ 52.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hawks; negative values favor Hornets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHornets · $1.2K
6hHawks · $4.4K
24hHawks · $13.3K

Hawks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hawks price. Hornets fills are converted to the complementary Hawks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h50.77¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d50.82¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hawks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$124.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHawks$15.0K@ 52.36¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYHawks$22.0K@ 51.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYHawks$15.0K@ 50.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Hawks vs. Hornets
56.5¢$407.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
46.5¢$67.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5
53.5¢$47.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5
50.5¢$35.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5
55.5¢$27.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5
48.5¢$19.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hawks (-5.5)
40.5¢$13.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5
60.5¢$323priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Elaran1993Hawks$37.0K
BUY VWAP 50.59¢·2 fills
BrotherObamaHawks$15.0K
BUY VWAP 52.36¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.