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Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Katerina Siniakova

● quote 47 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $166.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $370.9KEvent: Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Katerina Siniakova
0.2¢
Mary Stoiana
99.9¢
Katerina Siniakova
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:95 trades$174.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 47 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Katerina Siniakova · $36.7K net·11 wallets·$40.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKaterina Siniakova$72.2K@ 100¢·c4a759e5c9350491AF61646f2c4A46

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$164.3K
tracked
$174.9K

11 verified profitable wallets: Katerina Siniakova · $36.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +14.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 47 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 76 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 47 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 05:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mary Stoiana and Katerina Siniakova in the Japan Women's Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Katerina Siniakova. This market will resolve to 'Katerina Siniakova' if Katerina Siniakova advances against Mary Stoiana. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Katerina Siniakova2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Katerina Siniakova@ 86.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.6pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Katerina Siniakova@ 92.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mary Stoiana; negative values favor Katerina Siniakova. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMary Stoiana · $0
6hKaterina Siniakova · $164.3K
24hKaterina Siniakova · $164.2K

Mary Stoiana price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mary Stoiana price. Katerina Siniakova fills are converted to the complementary Mary Stoiana probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.2¢
VWAP 24h7.5¢▼ below by 7.3pp
VWAP 7d7.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mary Stoiana price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$9
30¢
$443
25¢
$26.6K
20¢
$2.9K
15¢
$1.4K
10¢
$28.5K
5¢
$4.7K
0¢
← now
$110.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKaterina Siniakova$72.2K@ 99.9¢
c4a759e5c9350491AF61646f2c4A460x14f1…4a46
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKaterina Siniakova$24.6K@ 87.9¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Katerina Siniakova (-3.5) vs Mary Stoiana (+3.5)
0.0¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Katerina Siniakova (-1.5) vs Mary Stoiana (+1.5)
0.0¢$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Mary Stoiana vs Katerina Siniakova
0.0¢$946priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Stoiana vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Stoiana vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$6priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mary Stoiana vs. Katerina Siniakova: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Stoiana vs. Siniakova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Stoiana vs. Siniakova: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

c4a759e5c9350491AF61646f2c4A46Katerina Siniakova$72.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
WoaifacaiKaterina Siniakova$24.6K
BUY VWAP 87.9¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesKaterina Siniakova$20.1K
BUY VWAP 75.5¢·7 fills
0x09be…9c32Katerina Siniakova$12.3K
BUY VWAP 95.7¢·3 fills
FlaznorpKaterina Siniakova$12.1K
BUY VWAP 91.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.