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Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane

● quote 1318 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $206.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $206.2KEvent: Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane

Indicative prices · 1318 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Daniil Medvedev
0.1¢
Terence Atmane
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets73Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$89.0K trackedsource coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1329 min agoofficial metadata 1321 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $19.6K net·6 wallets·$26.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniil Medvedev$8.5K@ 100¢·madkkee

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$89.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $19.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1318 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1329 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1321 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 09:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Terence Atmane in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Terence Atmane. This market will resolve to 'Terence Atmane' if Terence Atmane advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd9c9…66862 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Terence Atmane DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $1.2K · 42s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Terence Atmane. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $0
6hDaniil Medvedev · $0
24hDaniil Medvedev · $21.9K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Terence Atmane fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h94.55¢▲ above by 5.3pp
VWAP 7d93.58¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$62.8K
90¢
$1.6K
85¢
$33.6K
80¢
$2.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Medvedev vs. Atmane: Match O/U 21.5
—$6.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane
—$923priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Terence Atmane (+1.5)
—$327priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-3.5) vs Terence Atmane (+3.5)
—$265priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Daniil Medvedev vs. Terence Atmane: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Atmane: Match O/U 22.5
—$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Atmane: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Atmane: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesDaniil Medvedev$10.6K
BUY VWAP 94.00¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.