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Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner

Sports→Esports · ValorantCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $1.3KEvent: Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1

Polymarket indicative prices · 14 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
KeepBest Gaming
99.95¢
Nova Esports
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$106 trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 37 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nova Esports · $42 net·3 wallets·$42 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$39
6h
+$22
tracked
$106

3 verified profitable wallets: Nova Esports · $42 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 37 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "KeepBest Gaming" if KeepBest Gaming win Map 1 against Nova Esports.

•This market will resolve to "Nova Esports" if Nova Esports win Map 1 against KeepBest Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Semifinal 2 match between KeepBest Gaming and Nova Esports in the VCT Threshold China Week 1, initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "KeepBest Gaming" if KeepBest Gaming win Map 1 against Nova Esports. This market will resolve to "Nova Esports" if Nova Esports win Map 1 against KeepBest Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 24, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor KeepBest Gaming; negative values favor Nova Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKeepBest Gaming · $39
6hKeepBest Gaming · $22
24hKeepBest Gaming · $22

KeepBest Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted KeepBest Gaming price. Nova Esports fills are converted to the complementary KeepBest Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h14.41¢▼ below by 14.4pp
VWAP 7d14.41¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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KeepBest Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$25
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$42
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$39

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1
4.5¢$8.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 2 Winner
44.5¢$394priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
44.5¢$22priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs KeepBest Gaming (+2.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs KeepBest Gaming (+2.5)
90.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs KeepBest Gaming (+1.5)
53.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
10.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.