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Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)

● quote 82 min ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Pelicans vs. Nuggets

Indicative prices · 82 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

39.0¢
Nuggets
61.0¢
Pelicans
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 431 min agoofficial metadata 1149 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 82 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 431 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1149 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 15 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 15 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
tin543212 linked markets · $39.5K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $3.9K gross
ff668682 linked markets · $1.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuggets; negative values favor Pelicans. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNuggets · $0
6hNuggets · $0
24hPelicans · $1

Nuggets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuggets price. Pelicans fills are converted to the complementary Nuggets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.0¢
VWAP 24h38.0¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d38.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuggets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$1
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5
54.5¢$35.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5
53.5¢$29.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5
60.0¢$28.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
19.5¢$26.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)
49.5¢$11.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5
51.5¢$8.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.