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Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino

● quote 55 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $207.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $228.8KEvent: Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino

Indicative prices · 55 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

25.0¢
Thiago Agustin Tirante
99.9¢
Adrian Mannarino
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:91 trades$63.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 119 min agoofficial metadata 57 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adrian Mannarino · $1.3K net·9 wallets·$9.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThiago Agustin Tirante$11.3K@ 32¢·kdvlklkvlsklkfs

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$30.3K
tracked
$63.4K

9 verified profitable wallets: Adrian Mannarino · $1.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 55 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 119 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 57 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Adrian Mannarino in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5d63…90752 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Thiago Agustin Tirante DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $182 · 24s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thiago Agustin Tirante; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hThiago Agustin Tirante · $0
6hThiago Agustin Tirante · $30.3K
24hThiago Agustin Tirante · $34.0K

Thiago Agustin Tirante price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thiago Agustin Tirante price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Thiago Agustin Tirante probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current25.0¢
VWAP 24h35.3¢▼ below by 10.3pp
VWAP 7d35.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thiago Agustin Tirante price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3
60¢
$9.3K
55¢
$8.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.8K
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
$65
30¢
$21.8K
25¢
← now
$4.4K
20¢
$1.9K
15¢
$43
10¢
$3.0K
5¢
$1.2K
0¢
$7.8K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante$11.3K@ 32.0¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Tirante vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5
—$133priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$40priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Adrian Mannarino (-1.5) vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (+1.5)
—$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Adrian Mannarino (-0.5) vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (+0.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tirante vs. Mannarino: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tirante vs. Mannarino: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tirante vs. Mannarino: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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99.95¢$4.9Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kdvlklkvlsklkfsThiago Agustin Tirante$11.3K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·1 fill
0x241a…a9c8Thiago Agustin Tirante$10.8K
BUY VWAP 54.71¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.