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Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $456.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $582.4KEvent: Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Musetti

Indicative prices · 1 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Flavio Cobolli
99.95¢
Lorenzo Musetti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets23Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:189 trades$223.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 34 min agoofficial metadata 54s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Flavio Cobolli · $9.7K net·10 wallets·$42.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLorenzo Musetti$49.3K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Flavio Cobolli pressure: $50.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$50.8K
6h
+$67.7K
tracked
$223.4K

10 verified profitable wallets: Flavio Cobolli · $9.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 34 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 42.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Flavio Cobolli or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Lorenzo Musetti in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Flavio Cobolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $181 gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $76 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Flavio Cobolli UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $431 → $4.3K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Flavio Cobolli; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFlavio Cobolli · $50.8K
6hFlavio Cobolli · $67.7K
24hFlavio Cobolli · $78.1K

Flavio Cobolli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Flavio Cobolli price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Flavio Cobolli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h38.83¢▼ below by 38.8pp
VWAP 7d38.83¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Flavio Cobolli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$7.9K
80¢
$5.2K
75¢
$3.6K
70¢
$101
65¢
$14.6K
60¢
$4.6K
55¢
$53.1K
50¢
$9.8K
45¢
$12.4K
40¢
$31.8K
35¢
$9.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$5.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.8K
5¢
$7.8K
0¢
← now
$55.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLorenzo Musetti$49.3K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—43 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstLorenzo Musetti$28.2K
BUY VWAP 59.02¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesFlavio Cobolli$15.7K
BUY VWAP 56.77¢·8 fills
LuzzzerFlavio Cobolli$14.1K
BUY VWAP 57.70¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesLorenzo Musetti$10.6K
BUY VWAP 51.98¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.