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Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez

● quote 8 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $350.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $921.0KEvent: Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez

Indicative prices · 8 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Elena Rybakina
0.1¢
Leylah Fernandez
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:188 trades$455.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elena Rybakina · $175.2K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$207.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElena Rybakina$70.1K@ 73¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Leylah Fernandez pressure: $43.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$43.4K
6h
+$156.1K
tracked
$455.1K

12 verified profitable wallets: Elena Rybakina · $175.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 28.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Leylah Fernandez or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Rybakina and Leylah Fernandez in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Leylah Fernandez. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Elena Rybakina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $7.1K gross
0x3c36…39232 linked markets · $3.3K gross
wingwingwin2 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Elena Rybakina2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Elena Rybakina2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Elena Rybakina2h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Elena Rybakina@ 72.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
Latest book event: Leylah Fernandez DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $14.1K → $7.1K · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elena Rybakina; negative values favor Leylah Fernandez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLeylah Fernandez · $43.4K
6hElena Rybakina · $156.1K
24hElena Rybakina · $156.1K

Elena Rybakina price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elena Rybakina price. Leylah Fernandez fills are converted to the complementary Elena Rybakina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h79.25¢▲ above by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d79.25¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elena Rybakina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$81.5K
90¢
$54.1K
85¢
$31.2K
80¢
$28.4K
75¢
$12.3K
70¢
$135.6K
65¢
$46.5K
60¢
$42.0K
55¢
$23.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElena Rybakina$24.7K@ 99.9¢
isco230x86eb…6566
🐋—36 minutes ago
SELLElena Rybakina$12.5K@ 94.07¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLeylah Fernandez$23.6K@ 40.63¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLeylah Fernandez$25.0K@ 39.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$14.0K@ 61.0¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$20.5K@ 65.69¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$11.1K@ 69.0¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$70.1K@ 73.0¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$32.9K@ 74.69¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$17.9K@ 74.0¢
isco230x86eb…6566
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElena Rybakina$10.1K@ 76.0¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Elena Rybakina (-1.5) vs Leylah Fernandez (+1.5)
—$9.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Elena Rybakina (-4.5) vs Leylah Fernandez (+4.5)
—$4.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 21.5
—$4.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez
—$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 22.5
—$587priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Elena Rybakina vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$125priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WoaifacaiElena Rybakina$149.6K
BUY VWAP 70.67¢·6 fills
robustmstLeylah Fernandez$48.6K
BUY VWAP 39.77¢·2 fills
dmoralezElena Rybakina$26.4K
BUY VWAP 89.21¢·12 fills
isco23Elena Rybakina$17.9K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesElena Rybakina$17.0K
BUY VWAP 90.10¢·11 fills
999585Elena Rybakina$16.3K
BUY VWAP 82.16¢·2 fills
casper7Elena Rybakina$10.5K
BUY VWAP 85.99¢·2 fills
madkkeeElena Rybakina$10.1K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.