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Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $165.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $363.1KEvent: Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

38.5¢
Lorenzo Sonego
61.5¢
Jacob Fearnley
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$117.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Sonego · $26.1K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$56.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJacob Fearnley$36.0K@ 55¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$891
6h
+$65.0K
tracked
$117.1K

7 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Sonego · $26.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Jacob Fearnley in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Lorenzo Sonego DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $37.0K → $5.9K · 80s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Sonego; negative values favor Jacob Fearnley. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJacob Fearnley · $891
6hLorenzo Sonego · $65.0K
24hLorenzo Sonego · $65.0K

Lorenzo Sonego price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Sonego price. Jacob Fearnley fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Sonego probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h41.88¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d41.88¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Sonego price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$20.1K
40¢
$83.3K
35¢
← now
$237
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.0K
20¢
$4.0K
15¢
$5.5K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJacob Fearnley$36.0K@ 55.05¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$13.0K@ 40.75¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$13.0K@ 47.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley
99.95¢$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5
99.95¢$15priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Jacob Fearnley (-1.5) vs Lorenzo Sonego (+1.5)
0.05¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 22.5
99.5¢$4priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Jacob Fearnley: Total Sets O/U 2.5
99.95¢$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 23.5
99.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Fearnley: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
99.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonego vs. Fearnley: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
99.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesLorenzo Sonego$17.2K
BUY VWAP 38.95¢·10 fills
robustmstLorenzo Sonego$13.0K
BUY VWAP 40.75¢·1 fill
kkookkooLorenzo Sonego$13.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.