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Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 25 minutesLiquidity: $713.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $259.9KEvent: Grizzlies vs. Kings

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

52.0¢
Grizzlies
48.0¢
Kings
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection48Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets44Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 99%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$245.3K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 94%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 19s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Grizzlies · $34.6K net·8 wallets(2🐋)·$79.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGrizzlies$57.2K@ 51¢·googleplay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Grizzlies SETUP
What the tape says

Grizzlies pressure: $116.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$116.6K
6h
+$127.2K
tracked
$245.3K

8 verified profitable wallets: Grizzlies · $34.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 99% · priority 67

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Grizzlies or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Grizzlies" if the Grizzlies win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Grizzlies" if the Grizzlies win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay2 linked markets · $350.5K gross
BreakTheBank4 linked markets · $177.1K gross
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $114.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Grizzlies@ 52.0¢6m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Grizzlies@ 50.0¢17m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Kings@ 52.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Grizzlies@ 50.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Grizzlies; negative values favor Kings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGrizzlies · $116.6K
6hGrizzlies · $127.2K
24hGrizzlies · $115.3K

Grizzlies price VWAP

Volume-weighted Grizzlies price. Kings fills are converted to the complementary Grizzlies probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.0¢
VWAP 24h50.33¢▲ above by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d50.33¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Grizzlies price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$185.2K
45¢
$60.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYGrizzlies$16.7K@ 52.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—5 minutes ago
BUYGrizzlies$57.2K@ 50.83¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—8 minutes ago
BUYGrizzlies$40.7K@ 50.0¢
BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c
🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYKings$22.0K@ 51.0¢
LTandBB0xfb3e…a19a
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYGrizzlies$30.2K@ 49.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYKings$10.2K@ 50.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Grizzlies vs. Kings
61.5¢$641.6Kpriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 235.5
49.5¢$124.0Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)
47.5¢$102.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
44.5¢$33.3Kpriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)
44.5¢$26.6Kpriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
37.0¢$14.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-9.5)
30.0¢$7.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5
53.5¢$7.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

googleplayGrizzlies$87.9K
BUY VWAP 51.23¢·5 fills
BreakTheBankGrizzlies$49.8K
BUY VWAP 50.18¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111Grizzlies$30.2K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
LTandBBKings$22.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
maz26Kings$11.7K
BUY VWAP 50.23¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.