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UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card)

Sports→Combat SportsCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $9.1KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card)

Polymarket indicative prices · 6 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

34.5¢
Dakota Hope
65.5¢
Francis Marshall
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection53Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$3.7K trackedsource coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDakota Hope$2.0K@ 34¢·errormargin3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Dakota Hope pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.0K
6h
+$258
tracked
$3.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Francis Marshall · $1.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Dakota Hope or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Dakota Hope" if Dakota Hope is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Dakota Hope" if Dakota Hope is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Dakota Hope; negative values favor Francis Marshall. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDakota Hope · $2.0K
6hDakota Hope · $258
24hDakota Hope · $258

Dakota Hope price VWAP

Volume-weighted Dakota Hope price. Francis Marshall fills are converted to the complementary Dakota Hope probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h33.56¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d33.56¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Dakota Hope price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$3.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.